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申万宏源证券苏晓科:恒指冲顶对A股有什么影响?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月18日 06:39:14
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(原)(标)(题)(:申)(万)(宏)(源)(证)(券)(苏)(晓)(科)(:恒)(指)(冲)(顶)(对)(A股)(有)(什)(么)(影)(响)(?
作)(者)(苏)(晓)(科)((申)(万)(宏)(源)(证)(券)(资)(产)(管)(理)(事)(业)(部)(董)(事)(总)(经)(理)()
恒)(生)(指)(数)(自)(年)(初)(日)(至)(2月)(3日)(,指)(数)(上)(涨)(9.0%,上)(周)(,恒)(生)(指)(数)(下)(跌)(1.7%;而)(A股)(上)(证)(综)(指)(在)(经)(历)(了)(一)(波)(上)(涨)(后)(,上)(周)(指)(数)(下)(跌)(了)(2.8%。若)(将)(时)(间)(放)(远)(些)(看)(,相)(比)(A股)(,恒)(生)(指)(数)(在)(元)(旦)(前)(就)(已)(经)(开)(启)(了)(一)(波)(上)(涨)(行)(情)(。节)(后)(,受)(美)(股)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(的)(影)(响)(,港)(股)(升)(势)(加)(速)(,腾)(讯)(控)(股)(、建)(设)(银)(行)(、工)(商)(银)(行)(、中)(国)(平)(安)(等)(恒)(指)(成)(分)(股)(均)(不)(同)(程)(度)(的)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(,造)(就)(了)(恒)(指)(在)(较)(短)(时)(间)(内)(上)(穿)(历)(史)(高)(点)(31958点)(,并)(在)(此)(之)(后)(,连)(续)(多)(日)(迭)(创)(新)(高)(。
恒)(指)(在)(不)(到)(20个)(交)(易)(日)(内)(最)(高)(涨)(幅)(超)(过)(10%,这)(在)(历)(史)(上)(是)(比)(较)(罕)(见)(的)(。那)(么)(这)(波)(上)(涨)(有)(何)(显)(著)(的)(特)(点)(呢)(,笔)(者)(认)(为)(大)(致)(有)(如)(下)(三)(点)(:
一)(是)(涨)(势)(较)(急)(。元)(旦)(前)(不)(到)(30000点)(的)(恒)(生)(指)(数)(,元)(旦)(后)(最)(高)(一)(度)(升)(破)(33400点)(。短)(短)(一)(月)(间)(,指)(数)(涨)(了)(10%以)(上)(,的)(确)(难)(以)(想)(象)(。
二)(是)(新)(增)(资)(金)(入)(场)(提)(振)(作)(用)(明)(显)(。港)(股)(通)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,节)(后)(流)(入)(港)(股)(的)(南)(下)(资)(金)(大)(力)(买)(入)(了)(以)(建)(设)(银)(行)(、工)(商)(银)(行)(等)(为)(代)(表)(的)(内)(银)(股)(,中)(国)(平)(安)(为)(代)(表)(的)(内)(险)(股)(,以)(及)(当)(下)(港)(股)(日)(均)(交)(易)(额)(最)(大)(的)(腾)(讯)(控)(股)(,这)(些)(个)(股)(在)(节)(后)(均)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(。
三)(是)(个)(股)(走)(势)(分)(化)(较)(为)(显)(著)(,这)(点)(与)(当)(前)(的)(A股)(市)(场)(有)(那)(么)(几)(分)(相)(像)(。恒)(指)(成)(分)(股)(、国)(企)(股)(、蓝)(筹)(股)(均)(一)(路)(走)(高)(,与)(之)(相)(对)(应)(的)(是)(一)(些)(无)(人)(问)(津)(的)(小)(盘)(股)(、仙)(股)(的)(走)(势)(,实)(在)(是)(冰)(火)(两)(重)(天)(啊)(。
究)(其)(原)(因)(,笔)(者)(认)(为)(有)(如)(下)(五)(点)(理)(由)(支)(撑)(了)(这)(波)(上)(涨)(:
第)(一)(,港)(股)(通)(资)(金)(南)(下)(抢)(筹)(功)(不)(可)(没)(。元)(旦)(后)(,沪)(深)(两)(地)(的)(港)(股)(通)(资)(金)(基)(本)(上)(是)(每)(日)(保)(持)(净)(流)(入)(,而)(且)(流)(入)(规)(模)(均)(较)(以)(往)(有)(较)(大)(程)(度)(的)(提)(升)(。截)(止)(1月)(31日)(,两)(地)(港)(股)(通)(单)(月)(净)(流)(入)(额)(高)(达)(705亿)(,而)(历)(史)(累)(计)(净)(流)(入)(总)(额)(为)(7967亿)(,单)(月)(净)(流)(入)(额)(占)(总)(额)(比)(值)(接)(近)(10%,创)(下)(历)(史)(最)(大)(单)(月)(净)(流)(入)(额)(。
第)(二)(,尽)(管)(在)(过)(去)(一)(周)(美)(股)(遭)(遇)(暴)(跌)(,但)(此)(前)(的)(美)(股)(牛)(市)(行)(助)(推)(了)(港)(股)(进)(一)(步)(走)(升)(。港)(股)(和)(美)(股)(之)(间)(,相)(比)(于)(A股)(有)(更)(强)(的)(联)(动)(性)(。港)(股)(第)(一)(权)(重)(股)(腾)(讯)(控)(股)(与)(在)(美)(上)(市)(的)(多)(只)(中)(概)(明)(星)(股)(之)(间)(时)(有)(共)(振)(,阿)(里)(巴)(巴)(、百)(度)(、京)(东)(等)(元)(旦)(后)(升)(势)(凌)(厉)(,京)(东)(一)(度)(升)(穿)(50美)(元)(并)(创)(下)(历)(史)(新)(高)(,阿)(里)(巴)(巴)(自)(然)(不)(必)(多)(说)(,去)(年)(全)(年)(的)(涨)(幅)(就)(已)(超)(过)(100%,元)(旦)(后)(更)(是)(升)(破)(200美)(元)(再)(度)(勇)(创)(新)(高)(。另)(外)(,美)(国)(银)(行)(股)(、保)(险)(股)(也)(是)(一)(路)(走)(高)(,对)(港)(股)(中)(的)(内)(银)(股)(和)(内)(险)(股)(提)(振)(明)(显)(,纷)(纷)(效)(仿)(美)(股)(走)(势)(。
第)(三)(,港)(股)(历)(史)(大)(顶)(31958点)(近)(在)(咫)(尺)(,突)(破)(历)(史)(高)(点)(的)(美)(好)(愿)(望)(推)(动)(资)(金)(加)(速)(进)(场)(。创)(新)(高)(战)(法)(一)(直)(是)(股)(市)(技)(术)(流)(奉)(为)(经)(典)(的)(一)(种)(打)(法)(,即)(在)(某)(只)(股)(票)(即)(将)(突)(破)(历)(史)(高)(点)(前)(大)(力)(买)(入)(,等)(待)(突)(破)(的)(那)(一)(刻)(,这)(种)(战)(法)(屡)(试)(不)(爽)(。在)(港)(股)(将)(破)(历)(史)(大)(顶)(前)(,各)(路)(资)(金)(开)(始)(意)(识)(到)(这)(一)(点)(并)(加)(速)(进)(场)(最)(终)(助)(推)(恒)(指)(顺)(利)(拿)(下)(历)(史)(高)(点)(。
第)(四)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(基)(本)(面)(向)(好)(。1月)(国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(最)(新)(发)(布)(的)(PMI显)(示)(,这)(一)(反)(映)(制)(造)(业)(繁)(荣)(程)(度)(的)(指)(数)(已)(经)(连)(续)(18个)(月)(站)(稳)(于)(荣)(枯)(线)(上)(方)(。恒)(指)(权)(重)(股)(中)(的)(内)(银)(股)(、内)(险)(股)(以)(及)(内)(房)(股)(业)(绩)(普)(遍)(较)(去)(年)(有)(明)(显)(增)(长)(。煤)(炭)(钢)(铁)(有)(色)(等)(行)(业)(的)(业)(绩)(受)(环)(保)(限)(产)(、市)(场)(需)(求)(等)(因)(素)(影)(响)(,更)(是)(大)(幅)(窜)(升)(。国)(内)(大)(消)(费)(行)(业)(的)(利)(润)(增)(速)(也)(保)(持)(稳)(定)(,消)(费)(升)(级)(的)(大)(趋)(势)(不)(变)(。
第)(五)(,据)(国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,国)(内)(的)(CPI仍)(然)(保)(持)(低)(位)(,此)(外)(,央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(保)(持)(稳)(健)(中)(性)(等)(因)(素)(,也)(在)(宏)(观)(层)(面)(上)(为)(这)(轮)(行)(情)(提)(供)(了)(有)(效)(支)(撑)(。通)(货)(膨)(胀)(率)(在)(控)(制)(线)(以)(下)(,货)(币)(相)(对)(宽)(松)(,这)(对)(任)(何)(一)(个)(股)(市)(产)(生)(牛)(市)(行)(情)(都)(是)(有)(利)(的)(,港)(股)(也)(不)(例)(外)(。
关)(于)(这)(波)(走)(势)(对)(A股)(的)(影)(响)(,笔)(者)(认)(为)(有)(以)(下)(几)(点)(:
第)(一)(,A+H两)(地)(上)(市)(的)(蓝)(筹)(股)(在)(A股)(市)(场)(也)(受)(到)(热)(捧)(,典)(型)(的)(如)(建)(设)(银)(行)(、万)(科)(、中)(国)(平)(安)(等)(。相)(应)(的)(H股)(大)(涨)(,A股)(不)(涨)(都)(不)(好)(意)(思)(了)(,比)(价)(效)(应)(驱)(使)(这)(些)(A+H概)(念)(股)(大)(涨)(,但)(这)(里)(面)(也)(有)(一)(些)(必)(然)(因)(素)(。笔)(者)(很)(早)(之)(前)(就)(听)(到)(了)(A股)(市)(场)(关)(于)(投)(资)(者)(对)(于)(A股)(港)(股)(化)(的)(感)(叹)(。的)(确)(,股)(灾)(后)(一)(直)(相)(对)(平)(淡)(的)(A股)(市)(场)(需)(要)(一)(些)(榜)(样)(的)(刺)(激)(,创)(新)(高)(的)(港)(股)(给)(了)(A股)(市)(场)(投)(资)(者)(很)(好)(的)(指)(引)(,那)(就)(是)(行)(业)(龙)(头)(股)(近)(年)(来)(明)(显)(受)(捧)(。市)(场)(资)(金)(源)(源)(不)(断)(流)(入)(行)(业)(龙)(头)(股)(,在)(没)(有)(大)(规)(模)(新)(增)(资)(金)(入)(场)(的)(前)(提)(下)(,那)(些)(非)(行)(业)(龙)(头)(或)(非)(热)(门)(行)(业)(的)(股)(票)(自)(然)(被)(边)(缘)(化)(。
第)(二)(,以)(蓝)(筹)(股)(为)(主)(的)(上)(证)(50指)(数)(成)(为)(A股)(市)(场)(涨)(幅)(最)(接)(近)(恒)(指)(的)(主)(要)(指)(数)(,促)(使)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(投)(资)(风)(格)(发)(生)(重)(大)(转)(换)(,业)(绩)(优)(良)(或)(者)(有)(良)(好)(业)(绩)(预)(期)(的)(白)(马)(股)(颇)(受)(投)(资)(者)(追)(捧)(,价)(值)(投)(资)(的)(观)(念)(深)(入)(人)(心)(。通)(达)(信)(行)(业)(龙)(头)(指)(数)(自)(2016年)(年)(中)(以)(来)(就)(稳)(步)(攀)(升)(,1月)(更)(是)(加)(速)(大)(涨)(。聚)(集)(各)(行)(豪)(杰)(的)(上)(证)(50指)(数)(也)(在)(1月)(份)(暴)(涨)(近)(9%,其)(中)(很)(多)(上)(证)(50指)(数)(的)(成)(分)(股)(都)(是)(A+H两)(地)(上)(市)(的)(标)(的)(,有)(些)(虽)(然)(只)(在)(A股)(上)(市)(,但)(其)(所)(处)(行)(业)(大)(多)(也)(可)(见)(于)(港)(股)(成)(分)(股)(所)(属)(行)(业)(之)(中)(。当)(然)(,除)(了)(行)(业)(龙)(头)(的)(虹)(吸)(效)(应)(之)(外)(,不)(可)(否)(认)(的)(是)(,证)(监)(会)(对)(价)(值)(投)(资)(的)(大)(力)(提)(倡)(也)(是)(影)(响)(市)(场)(风)(格)(明)(显)(切)(换)(的)(成)(因)(。
总)(的)(来)(说)(,恒)(指)(这)(波)(“快)(牛)(”行)(情)(具)(有)(重)(要)(的)(历)(史)(意)(义)(。不)(仅)(仅)(是)(因)(为)(时)(隔)(10多)(年)(后)(再)(创)(历)(史)(新)(高)(,同)(时)(它)(也)(证)(明)(了)(中)(国)(市)(场)(也)(有)(价)(值)(牛)(存)(在)(,让)(投)(资)(者)(分)(享)(到)(了)(中)(国)(改)(革)(开)(放)(的)(红)(利)(,分)(享)(到)(了)(上)(市)(公)(司)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(带)(来)(的)(喜)(悦)(感)(。展)(望)(未)(来)(,笔)(者)(相)(信)(港)(股)(未)(来)(仍)(有)(新)(高)(,也)(坚)(信)(在)(港)(股)(的)(带)(动)(下)(,A股)(会)(最)(终)(重)(回)(历)(史)(巅)(峰)(。最)(后)(希)(望)(广)(大)(投)(资)(者)(以)(港)(股)(为)(鉴)(,以)(价)(值)(投)(资)(为)(导)(向)(,发)(掘)(价)(值)(和)(成)(长)(兼)(备)(的)(上)(市)(公)(司)(,从)(而)(实)(现)(财)(富)(的)(保)(值)(增)(值)(。(中)(新)(经)(纬)(APP)
【专)(家)(简)(介)(】苏)(晓)(科)(,申)(万)(宏)(源)(证)(券)(上)(海)(分)(公)(司)(副)(总)(经)(理)(、资)(产)(管)(理)(事)(业)(部)(董)(事)(总)(经)(理)(。历)(任)(汇)(丰)(银)(行)((HSBC)全)(球)(利)(率)(衍)(生)(产)(品)(总)(部)(利)(率)(结)(构)(化)(产)(品)(设)(计)(及)(定)(价)(金)(融)(工)(程)(师)(,申)(银)(万)(国)(证)(券)(研)(究)(所)(固)(定)(收)(益)(高)(级)(分)(析)(师)(。
中)(新)(经)(纬)(版)(权)(所)(有)(,未)(经)(书)(面)(授)(权)(,任)(何)(单)(位)(及)(个)(人)(不)(得)(转)(载)(、摘)(编)(或)(以)(其)(它)(方)(式)(使)(用)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
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